20-City Composite Home Price Index

Bill McBride's mid-August housing overview finds national list prices have moved sideways for four years, with the Case-Shiller 20-city composite up just 1.6% year over year in May and seasonally adjusted prices down for a third straight month. He expects further softness through year-end as the market moves past its seasonal peak.

The May S&P Cotality Case-Shiller data showed national home prices up 1.1% annually — the first 2026 reading above 1% but still well behind 4.2% inflation. Miami gained 1.81% year over year while Midwest and Northeast metros outperformed a cooling Sun Belt and West, with tight inventory putting a floor under prices.

The Case-Shiller national index climbed 1.1% year over year in May to 335.1, accelerating from April's 0.8% pace but remaining below inflation, which hit a three-year high of 4.2%. That means US home prices are still declining in real terms and the market is notably weaker than a year ago.